牛市的顯著特徵是，整個過程中至少會出現兩到三個重大的中途調整，並且每次調整後都會繼續快速推進。
除非是最後的下跌，之前的下跌都是為了更好的上漲，然後每次都更高。當最後一次調整發生時，牛市就會結束，斷崖式下跌。
那麼，盡可能準確地判斷哪些下跌是為了更好的上漲，哪些上漲處於最後的「瘋狂」時期，這一點非常重要。
各種賽道輪轉，市場情緒暴漲，機會增多，手上資產開始增加一倍。在這個過程中，我花在推特上的時間會增加，聚餐的次數也會越來越頻繁，正是為了盡可能準確地判斷大眾對於當前的牛市有多「瘋狂」。從情感上來說，這是一個重要的判斷基礎。
這個階段就是所謂的牛楚。我覺得牛初是機會最多、資本累積最快的時候。熊市時，大家都裝死，市場一片寂靜；牛市頂峰的時候，大家都接近瘋狂，機會少了，坑蒙拐騙的招數多了；只是在牛市初期，機會很多，回報比較高。
這個時候，不要害怕跌倒，要盡可能地發現機會。你必須找到一種方法來保留你的本金，並在眾多機會中選擇收益回報比最好的一個，下重註，然後在情緒最高的瘋牛階段，賣出去。您最初分階段建立的資產。經過這樣的循環，你的財富才能實現質的飛躍。
至於如何判斷最後一次調整或可能出現大幅下跌的看跌階段，根據我之前的經驗，我之前提到過，我對任何時期市場的判斷都來自於：情緒理論+具體市場情況。
之前討論過情緒。對於市場來說，正常的牛市推進過程應該是“量增價漲”，也就是說後續上漲浪的成交量應該大於調整前上漲浪的成交量。如果任何一波上漲出現明顯背離，也就是說新一波上漲的成交量還沒有創出新高，甚至比前一波還小，但點數卻屢創新高，這是非常危險的。訊號，表明市場隨時可能發生變化。
要知道，這種情況一旦發生變化，那將是極具殺傷力的。
In this stage of sprinting to the top, do not be fooled by the skyrocketing market value of your account every day. You must clearly realize that trend investment cannot be at the top, and there will inevitably be a certain degree of profit retracement. If you still keep staring at If you look at the highest market value of your account and imagine it to be at the highest point, you will be no different from the vast majority of red-eyed gamblers. You will most likely be influenced by luck and eventually survive the entire "Crazy Bear". A tragic ending.
Because when people face losses, they always like to take risks. This is the weakness of human nature. It is very easy to lose reason due to losses, thus ignoring greater risks and choosing to go all-in.
Disclaimer: This article does not constitute investment advice. Users should consider whether any opinions, views or conclusions in this article are consistent with their specific circumstances, and abide by the relevant laws and regulations of the country and region where they are located.
This article is reprinted with permission from: "Marsbit"
Original author: @BTW0205
Original title: What should we do at the beginning of the Ox | Every decline is for the best rise. How to judge the beginning and the tail of the Ox?
Original source: X
