[Audio version] Jinshi Futures Breakfast on April

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Macro News

1. On the 8th local time, Al Jazeera quoted a source from the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) as saying that Hamas negotiators had left Cairo and that the negotiations on the 7th had made no progress. The Israeli delegation did not respond to any of Hamas's demands. Earlier, Egypt's official television station quoted an anonymous senior official from the Egyptian security department as saying that the delegations from all parties who came to participate in the ceasefire negotiations had made progress in the negotiations on multiple points of disagreement.

2. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of April 8, 2024, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 2172.14 points, down 0.1% from the previous period.

3. After a five-day visit to China, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a press conference in Beijing on the afternoon of April 8, where she reiterated that the U.S. does not seek to decouple from China. The economies of China and the United States are closely linked, and decoupling would have disastrous consequences.

4. On the evening of April 7, 2024, Finance Minister Lan Foan held talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen in Beijing and exchanged views on the macroeconomic situation of China and the United States, bilateral economic relations, and cooperation in responding to global challenges. Deputy Finance Minister Liao Min accompanied him.

5. Liao Min, Vice Minister of Finance, briefed the media on the visit of US Treasury Secretary Yellen to China and answered questions: Regarding the next arrangements. In accordance with the instructions of the leaders of both sides, the working level of both sides will continue to promote the implementation of the above consensus under the economic and financial working groups. The fourth meeting of the two working groups is scheduled to be held during the World Bank/International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings in Washington, the United States in mid-April.

Global futures market changes

1. International oil prices fell across the board, with the May contract of U.S. crude oil falling 0.39% to $86.57 per barrel, and the June contract of Brent crude oil falling 0.71% to $90.52 per barrel.

2. International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 0.55% to $2,358.4 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 1.7% to $27.97 per ounce.

3. The main contracts of agricultural futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed with mixed gains and losses, with soybean futures down 0.3% at 1181.5 cents per bushel; corn futures up 0.29% at 435.5 cents per bushel, and wheat futures down 0.31% at 565.5 cents per bushel.

4. Most of the base metals in London closed higher, with LME copper futures up 1.22% to $9,443.5/ton, LME zinc futures up 1.12% to $2,668/ton, LME nickel futures down 0.22% to $17,765/ton, LME aluminum futures up 0.37% to $2,459.5/ton, LME tin futures up 3.46% to $29,790/ton and LME lead futures up 0.59% to $2,136/ton.

5. Most domestic commodity futures closed higher at night, with energy and chemical products generally rising, butadiene rubber up 1.82%, soda ash up 1.68%, glass up 1.42%, crude oil up 1.4%, fuel oil up 1.08%, and rubber up nearly 1%. Black series rose across the board, with iron ore up 3.04%, hot-rolled coil up 1.16%, and rebar up 1.08%. Agricultural products showed divergent performance, with palm oil down 1.77%. Basic metals closed higher across the board, with Shanghai tin up 2.12%, Shanghai copper up 1.31%, Shanghai nickel up 0.96%, Shanghai zinc up 0.9%, stainless steel up 0.73%, Shanghai aluminum up 0.3%, and Shanghai lead up 0.12%. Shanghai gold rose 0.93%, and Shanghai silver rose 2.24%.

Black hot news

1. From April 1 to April 7, Mysteel's total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 26.942 million tons, a decrease of 1.169 million tons from the previous month. Australia's shipments were 18.543 million tons, a decrease of 2.177 million tons from the previous month, of which Australia's shipments to China were 15.196 million tons, a decrease of 2.734 million tons from the previous month. Brazil's shipments were 8.399 million tons, an increase of 1.008 million tons from the previous month.

2. From April 1 to April 7, the total amount of iron ore arriving at 47 ports in China was 25.819 million tons, an increase of 206,000 tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at 45 ports in China was 24.369 million tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous month; the total amount of iron ore arriving at the six northern ports was 10.917 million tons, a decrease of 885,000 tons from the previous month.

3. According to Mysteel, on April 8, some steel mills in Tangshan planned to increase or reduce the price of wet-quenched coke by 100 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke by 110 yuan/ton, which will be implemented from 0:00 on April 9, 2024.

4. In April, Hegang's 75B ferrosilicon tender volume was 1,516 tons, and the total tender volume in March was 1,640 tons, a decrease of 124 tons from the previous round. Among them, Wuyang New Wide and Hou 450 (+150) tons, Handan Iron and Steel 500 (-400) tons, Shijiazhuang Special Steel 166 (+66) tons, and Tangshan New District 400 (-40) tons.

5. Shanxi Coking Coal announced that the Shaqu No. 1 Coal Mine of its subsidiary Huajin Coking Coal Co., Ltd. resumed production. The Shaqu No. 1 Coal Mine was shut down for a total of 117 days due to the accident, and it is estimated that the raw coal output will be affected by about 1.4 million tons.

Hot news on agricultural products

1. The National Grain and Oil Information Center released the April "Monthly Report on Supply and Demand of Oils and Fats Market", which predicts that my country's soybean supply will increase by 117.84 million tons in 2023/2024, including 20.84 million tons of domestic soybean production and 97 million tons of soybean imports. The annual soybean oil consumption is expected to be 98.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 2.2%; the edible and industrial consumption of soybeans is expected to be 16.8 million tons, an increase of 650,000 tons year-on-year, and the annual soybean supply and demand surplus is 1.24 million tons.

2. According to a Bloomberg survey, Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to be 1.76 million tons in March 2024, down 8.33% from February, falling to the lowest level since July, as a surge in buying demand during the holiday season offset improved production expectations; production was 1.36 million tons, up 8% from February, the first monthly increase since October last year; exports were 1.23 million tons, a sharp increase of 21% from February as traders stockpiled palm oil for Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr.

3. According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, as of April 3, the national live pig price was 15.37 yuan/kg, up 0.79% from March 27; the corn price in major wholesale markets was 2.46 yuan/kg, the same as on March 27; the pig-to-grain price ratio was 6.25, up 0.81% from March 27.

4. Renuka Sugar, India's leading sugar producer, said it expects India's sugar production to exceed 32 million tons, which is higher than previously expected. Domestic sugar prices are currently stable, and the government is expected to intervene to maintain price stability, especially as India's general election approaches.

5. According to the China Sugar Association, as of the end of March, sugarcane sugar mills have gradually closed their production in the 2023/2024 sugar production season. During this sugar production season, the country produced a total of 9.5731 million tons of sugar, an increase of 855,100 tons year-on-year, an increase of 9.81%. The country sold a total of 4.7345 million tons of sugar, an increase of 359,800 tons year-on-year, an increase of 8.23%; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 49.46%, a year-on-year slowdown of 0.72 percentage points.

6. According to Mysteel's survey, as of April 5, 2024 (week 14), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas across the country was 560,950 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons from the previous week, an increase of 5.91%; compared with 921,200 tons last year, a decrease of -360,300 tons, a decrease of -39.11%. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key areas across the country was 874,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.01%.

7. Analysts at Hamburg-based Oil World said Indonesia exported about 1.59 million tons of palm oil in February, down about a third from 2.31 million tons in January this year and 2.39 million tons in February last year. In February, Indonesia's crude palm oil exports were 153,000 tons, 347,000 tons in January, and 137,000 tons in February 2023.

8. According to Wind data, as of April 8, 2024, the national port inventory of imported soybeans was 7.58013 million tons, compared with 7.70588 million tons on April 1, a month-on-month decrease of 125,750 tons.

9. Consulting firm AgRural said on Monday that as of last Thursday, Brazil's soybean harvest rate for the 2023/2024 season was 78%, up 4% from the previous week and lower than 82% in the same period last year.

10. Consulting firm AgResource raised its forecast for Brazil's soybean production in 2023/2024 to 145.46 million tons, from its previous forecast of 143.92 million tons; and lowered its forecast for Brazil's corn production in 2023/2024 to 114.19 million tons, from its previous forecast of 114.94 million tons.

11. According to the data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, as of the week of April 4, 2024, the export inspection volume of U.S. soybeans was 484,328 tons, in line with the market expectation of 350,000-700,000 tons. The previous week was revised to 547,351 tons, and the initial value was 414,484 tons. In the week of April 6, 2023, the export inspection volume of U.S. soybeans was 678,920 tons. As of the week of April 4, 2024, the United States shipped 215,344 tons of soybeans to China (mainland), compared with 214,220 tons in the previous week; the export inspection volume of U.S. soybeans to China accounted for 44.46% of the total export inspection volume that week, compared with 51.68% last week.

12. The weekly crop growth report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) early Tuesday morning showed that as of the week of April 7, the U.S. corn planting rate was 3%, the market expected 4%, 2% in the previous week, 3% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 2%. The U.S. cotton planting rate was 5%, 3% in the previous week, 5% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 6%. The excellent rate of U.S. winter wheat was 56%, the market expected 56%, 56% in the previous week, and 27% in the same period last year; the heading rate of winter wheat was 6%, 4% in the previous week, 7% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 5%. The spring wheat sowing rate was 3%, the market estimate was 3%, 1% in the previous week, 1% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 3%.

Energy and Chemical Industry Hot News

1. According to Longzhong Information, as of April 7, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers this week was 916,800 tons, up 41,800 tons from Monday, an increase of 4.78%. Among them, the light inventory was 370,000 tons and the heavy inventory was 546,800 tons. The overall operating rate of soda ash last week was 85.05%, down 4.36 percentage points from 89.41% last week.

2. According to Longzhong Information, as of April 8, the total sample inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 147,100 tons, down 19,400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of -11.65%. From the news, although the pick-up volume decreased, the arrival volume was even less, and the arrival volume was still lower than the pick-up volume, and the port inventory continued to decline.

3. Iraq's Deputy Oil Minister said that Iraq has completed the first phase of repairing the oil export pipeline to Turkey. The Iraq-Turkey Oil Pipeline (ITP) will begin operations at the end of April and is ready to export 350,000 barrels of crude oil per day from northern oil fields.

Metal Hot News

1. UBS said that given stronger gold demand, the expected recovery in ETF purchases and the year-end target of $2,250/ounce having been surpassed, all forecasts were raised by $250/ounce, and gold prices were expected to reach $2,300/ounce in June and $2,500/ounce by the end of 2024 and the end of March 2025.

2. The Shanghai Gold Exchange announced that starting from the closing settlement on April 9, 2024 (Tuesday), the margin ratio of the Ag (T+D) contract will be adjusted from 10% to 12%, and the price fluctuation limit will be adjusted from 9% to 11% starting from the next trading day.

3. India imported a record 2,295 tons of silver in February, up from 637 tons in January (a 260% surge from the previous month), as lower tariffs encouraged it to import 939 tons of silver from the UAE, according to Indian government officials. Officials added that silver imports are expected to grow 66% this year.

Bragging about "futures" - revealing the logic of commodity trading!

1. Silver futures hit the daily limit! How much room is left above?

Jinrui Futures analysis pointed out that looking forward to the future, considering the escalation risk of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, risk aversion will continue to support precious metal prices; and the expectation of re-inflation also supports the prices of gold and silver, and it is expected that the strong trend of gold and silver will not end in the short term. However, considering the large increase in gold and silver in the previous period, there are certain signs of over-inflation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the possible pressure of correction in the future. However, from a medium- and long-term perspective, the