Analysts at JPMorgan predict that the Bitcoin halving event planned for April could cause the price of Bitcoin to drop as low as $42,000. The halving event will reduce the reward for Bitcoin miners from the current 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC. This reduction will negatively affect the profitability of miners and lead to an increase in the cost of Bitcoin production. JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a report on Wednesday that the cost of Bitcoin production affects its price, which is expected to be $42,000 after the halving.
What do you think about this? Simply share it with everyone!
1. First of all, from the supply side, the output has indeed decreased, but from the perspective of circulation, as long as the rewards are still there, the circulation will still increase. It is just a decrease, not no output. As Bitcoin rises , more machines that were originally shut down have started to run. From the perspective of output, as long as the market goes up, your original output will become less, but when the market goes up, everyone has more trading activities, which can be completely offset! .
2. From the perspective of miners’ mining costs, block reward income is reduced, and it is no problem for miners to sell their inventory. However, in the current Bitcoin ecosystem, on-chain activities have increased, and miners’ income has also increased. There are several previous data. Said: First, the data on the Bitcoin chain exceeds that of Ethereum, second, 20% of miners’ income comes from inscriptions, and Bitcoin’s NFT transaction volume exceeds that of Ethereum! In the long run, the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem can stabilize the income of miners and ensure the security of the network. It can be speculated that there will be more on-chain activities in the future, and NFT will also have an amazing transaction volume. So from this perspective, this round The cost of bull market miners has not been affected by the halving!
3. ETF passed Bitcoin is recognized by the mainstream market. There is data that says: the funds flowing in within 15 days after the ETF was passed have already digested the selling pressure generated by Bitcoin within three months after the upcoming halving! Therefore, the adoption of ETF has also well digested the selling pressure of miners!
Summarize:
From all angles, the upward trend is difficult to change due to other factors. Just like a moving train, once it starts, it will take longer to stop, or it will be more difficult. So someone asked, can JPMorgan Chase’s words be trusted? In fact, no matter whether it is JPMorgan Chase or any media, it cannot be trusted. News can be delayed, and advertisements can be bought with money. They are just tools for capital to operate the market. In this round, as long as you are in the right position, Just sell at a certain price. The best prediction is not to predict! If your expectation is US$100,000, and the current US$70,000 is less than 50% of the income from US$100,000. If you are a fixed investment like me, you can calculate the income ratio to see when you can sell. Out!
Never think about making swings, or selling to the highest point, sell at the price you think is right, and make the money you know!
